Picks & busts.

Second and third options with big-number potential. The original list excludes obvious every-week starters.

Pick

quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts

Put simply, Hurts might be the highest ceiling QB in the league. If you take his 4 games started and extrapolate his numbers to a whole season, he is averaging 4500 yards passing, 25 passing TDs, 1500 rushing yards and 13 rushing TDs. Do I need to say more?

Pick

quarterbacks

Jimmy Garoppolo

Hear me out, I get it, Lance is a top pick, highly touted, and more. But, but, Jimmy is currently only drafted in 9% of leagues!! He's also the STARTER. Lets also add the 49ers have the 2nd easiest schedule for QBs based on FantasyPros assessment. Now, I get it, Lance may take his job, but he was the QB14 last time he played 16 games. For a late round draft pick, or even undrafted, he's not a bad gamble, especially if you own Trey Lance.

Pick

quarterbacks

Derek Carr

Would you believe me if I told you Carr got 4100 yards, 29-9 TD/INT Ratio, and the 11th best QBR in the league? Probably not. And I understand that his O-Line may be... shattered, but this just means he IS throwing more, not matter what. Combine this with (supposed) camp standouts Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards, with the Walrus returning at full power, and a guy who finished at QB13 could be yours, especially considering he is considered QB22 by Average Draft Position.

Pick

running backs

Josh Jacobs

Now, I get it, I just talked about how the Raiders will have to air it out more with a damaged O-Line, and their defense has fallen off, but Jacobs is a 1000 yard guy every year regardless. I understand he may not reach that this year, but his better pass protection should put him out there more, even with Kenyan Drake on his team, meaning he'll be used in the passing game. This being said, his current draft position is 5th round as RB19. Thats straight disrespectful for an auto-goaline back. Sauce Man prediction: Jacobs will be the 2nd best fantasy running back in his division.. only behind...

Pick

running backs

Austin Ekeler

My man missed six games due to injury last season, but during 10 active weeks, Ekeler racked up 933 yards despite finding the end zone only three times. Even including the weeks he was sidelined, Ekeler finished fifth among backs in receptions and receiving yards for the second-consecutive season. Thats insane, and add new coach Brandon Staley, who coordinated with the RB-Friendly Rams, and a new O-Line of Slater, Bulaga, Corey Lindsley, and Ekeler is in prime position to be THE RB1.

Pick

running backs

Javonte Williams

Lets read a history book. The Chargers a few years back had a solid, if overrated player in Melvin Gordon, begging for a new contract, and looking a tad slower than usual. As he held out, a young gun named AUSTIN EKELER took his job, and Melvin found himself on the Broncos. While he is not holding out now, he is also injury prone, and is nursing one, as we speak. Javonte on the other hand, is a young spring chicken, a 3rd round runningback (same as Antonio Gibson), and had the second-best YAC (4.1) and forced missed tackle rates (3.0) of his draft. Tell me Melvins keeping his job.

Pick

wide receivers

Odell Beckham

Man, I think Odell is overrated and a diva as is, but you're telling me his draft position is SIXTH ROUND? WR25??? Behind Kupp, Golladay, Tee Higgins, and camp loser JaMarr Chase?? WHAT?? As the wise Sammy L. Jackson said "Say 'what' again, I dare you, I double dare you motherf***er, say what one more Goddamn time!"" Making me defend Odell...

Pick

wide receivers

Corey Davis

God this WR list is going to make me throw up. But take a minute and listen to what I'm boutta say. Corey Davis was targetted on 6-11 of Zach Wilson's passes for a total of 70 yards. Now lets assume he drops from OVER 50% of the total passes to 32%, still high, but HALF to whats been goin' on in preseason. Wilson is projected at 3950.5 yards and 554.6 passes. 25% of that is 140 targets. If he catches 6-11, or 54% (modest), its about 80 catches , which equates to 900 yards. Yeah. This is at WR1/2 level production at WR45, or Round 11.

Pick

wide receivers

Devonta Smith

Now, this one doesn't have insane numbers behind it. I don't have anything fancy, besides a few camp reports and what I know about the Eagles. Jalen Hurts is, still as a young player, a one-read or run guy. Who dominated with Jalen Hurts late last year? Great routerunners, or quick slot guys. DeSean, Alshon, Greg Ward and Quez Watkins ALL got at least 1 TD from Hurts. Guess what Smith is? BOTH an insane route runner, and fast as lightning. He's a gamble, but one worth taking perhaps.

Pick

tight ends

Logan Thomas

In on all 37 snaps * 13 snaps slot, 3 wide * 22 routes run on 22 Fitzpatrick dropbacks * 3 targets on 21 Fitzpatrick pass attempts (14.2%) As a guy who's going round 10, he's probably better than a lot of TE streamers. Not much else. Dude's a granola bar, plain but does its job.

Pick

tight ends

Robert Tonyan

He's going round 10, same as Logan Thomas, but for a different reason. His TD rate is ridiculous, (19%!!!!!) and his target rate is the loewst EVER by a top 12 TE in fantasy. That being said, dude has a nose for the endzone, and Rodgers loves his big fellas. I expect Packers to struggle a bit on D this year, meaning Rodgers should air it out more, and to be fair, if he continues his TD rate somehow, you wont need a streamer ever again.

Pick

tight ends

Donald Parham JR

XFL L E G E N D. Wanna talk risk? Parham is betting on a 6'8 240lb TE with 4.6 speed and a 40 inch vertical. Oh also, his competition is stone hands Jared Cook. Dude is a risk, but there's no reason he can't be Waller-lite per his athleticism. You can grab him UNDRAFTED.

The players the original column expected to underperform their draft position.

Bust

quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes

Getting SPICY. Now before you roll your eyes, hear me out. The Chiefs have basically converted from a zone to a power offense this season via the O-Line. Orlando Brown, Thuney, Remmers, Kyle Long, Blythe, Trey Smith? All massive, hulking human beings known for their power. The reason I bring this up is they will run the ball very Raiders-like. So Mahomes may still be good right? Sure. But at round 3???? Consider me lost in that sauce.

Bust

quarterbacks

Dak Prescott

Why is a guy, coming off crippling ankle surgery, and now with a hurt shoulder, under constant MRIs, drafted at round 6? I get it, as much as I dislike Dak, he played well last year. That being said, he pounded Atlanta, Seattle, and the Browns. While the Browns game is impressive, he was stunted by the Rams, and was struggling against the Giants pre-injury. I think he's coming into an offense who's O-Line is damaged, into a bland offense, with a new 14-ab Zeke. I wouldn't be shocked if he does well, but would gamble against it.

Bust

quarterbacks

Joe Burrow

Man, I feel bad for the kid. I do. The O-Line is tragic still, JaMarr can't catch a cold, and Zac Taylor is still running play action with dog-water O-Lines??? Poor kid. I haven't read or heard a SINGLE positive about the Bengals this offseason. Stay away from this dumspter fire. And I love QBs with bad teams, but not one with a broken leg.

Bust

running backs

Joe Mixon

Again, I feel bad for this guy too. His lumpy ass head about to get even lumpier with this piss-poor O-Line. And its sad because I think he's at least a top 10 RB talent wise, but his situation? Probably last man. Mixon is talented, Zac Taylor is not. Mixons being drafted as RB10 ahead of Antonio Gibson, Dobbins, Ekeler, and more.

Bust

running backs

Miles Sanders

Man, I hate watching this dude play. He breaks one or two big runs and then never plays well again. Personal feelings aside, my problems with him are simple. He's reliant on big runs, and this is a older O-Line, so I expect the lanes to be a bit worse, but also, Hurts is his QB. 1500 Rushing Yard hurts. Yeah. Also he lost his 3rd down RB job to Kenneth Gainwell, rookie RB from Memphis (totaled 44 yards on eight touches, including three catches on three targets.) Stay away from this stinkbomb.

Bust

running backs

Raheem Mostert

I gotta admit, this one is a stretch. Dude is a lightning bolt. He's what Miles Sanders wishes he was, talented. My problem is the depth on this damn 9ers team! You got Mostert, starter. Then Trey Sermon, a highly touted rookie RB, Hasty, who is the 3rd down RB according to camp reports. That being said, he is also hurt often so you'll be hard pressed to figure out who the backup/handcuff is.

Bust

wide receivers

Kenny Golladay

Remember how I said Bengals training camp sucks? Well, the same for the Golladay-Jones connection. They supposedly cannot connect AT ALL. Not to mention, all talk is of Shepherd's improvement, and Jones balanced attack with the RBs. He's also already hurt (lol). That being said, I love Golladay, a true monster at the point of attack, but budget Mike Evans about to look like budget Funchess.

Bust

wide receivers

CeeDee Lamb

HOT TAKE ALERT. I like CeeDee man, but we're drafting him ahead of Keenan Allen, Chris Godwin, DJ Moore, (the alpha WR on HIS TEAM) Amari Cooper, Robert Woods, Julio Jones, Adam Thielen, and Tyler Lockett. And I get it, he's freakishly talented, but man he's going 2-3 rounds ahead of guys who were just as good, if better, or sophomores in LESS balanced offenses with no alphas, like Aiyuk, Claypool, etc. Could he be the next Odell? Sure. Do I think its this year? Probably not.

Bust

wide receivers

DJ Chark

Another guy I love, but coached by a guy I dislike in Mr. Meyers. Charks problems are simple, the O-Line is average at best, and Lawrence loves to target YAC monsters like Viska and Robinson. Urban also has, for the whole preseason, ran Chark on slants or go routes. Dawg, this aint Madden. Granted, he is a late flyer, so up to you if he's a "bust".

Bust

tight ends

Kyle Pitts

Before you get mad, understand this. Tight end is the HARDEST position to learn in football. Period. And while we love highlights, and Pitts for sure will have some boom games, he's going in the 5th round! Now lets say he's the next Kelce. Kelce had 860 yards and 5 TDs. Sounds good right? He was held below 60 yards in 9 of his 16 games. Meaning he boomed 7 weeks, busted, 9 times. You decide if thats worth a 5th rounder (FYI- I think he'll be the best TE in a year or two.)

Bust

tight ends

Dallas Goedert

The Eagles still have Ertz. Like. Why is Goedert going in the 10th with Logan Thomas, Irv Smith, Gronk, Jonnu, Trautman, Gesicki, Tonyan, Higbee and Fant??? If you draft him, you deserve to lose this year. (Unless Ertz is gone or hurt).

Bust

tight ends

Evan Engram

Thats Pro-Bowler Evan Engram to you. Jokes aside, he led all TEs in drops (eight) and close to last in catch rate and YPT in 2020. He's a bum. His ability is he's fast but if you can't get a ball, how tf you supposed to be score? Just don't do it Will. Please.